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Projections for most of the third quarter are for resin prices to be relatively steady and/or a bit firmer for all five of the major commodity resins, based on generally softer domestic and global demand. The caveat: Multiple major factors could influence the pricing trajectory, including potential geopolitical risks, oil volatility, trade war issues and what’s dubbed as an active hurricane season that could significantly impact production and supply. 

Source: BASF

These are the views of purchasing consultants from Resin Technology Inc. (RTi); David Barry, associate director for PE, PP and PS at OPIS’s PetroChemWire (PCW); Michael Greenberg, CEO of Resintel, the market intelligence service of The Plastics Exchange; Scott Newell, executive VP of polyolefins at distributor/compounder Spartan Polymers; and Mike Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors.

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PE Prices Flat, Then Up?

Polyethylene (PE) prices appeared to roll over in June, despite suppliers’ price increase nominations of 5¢/lb, and July nominations for 5-7¢/lb, according to PCW’s Barry, Resintel’s Greenberg, Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors, and Kevin Mekaru, RTi’s senior 911������ leader for commodity plastics. The latter ventured that suppliers could have garnered a 3¢/lb increase in June, due to a large draw in inventories and geopolitical issues.

All sources generally expected that suppliers would implement at least a partial increase of about 3¢/lb in July or August, barring any major production and/or supply disruptions. PCW’s Barry and Resintel’s Greenberg cited higher spot prices as demand picked up through June. This amid tighter supply availability, is leading to a generally more bullish stance among suppliers. “While bullish factors are bubbling beneath the market, and the tide could be turning, we have yet to see substantial enthusiasm develop,” Greenberg says. “Buyers generally believe that resins will remain readily available and at favorable pricing.”

PE resin prices are near a five-year low.

Plastic Resin Market Advisors’ Burns noted that PE resin prices are near a five-year low, and that suppliers will aim to push pricing higher with improved exports and lower production. “Following the second month of successful production rate cuts and the return of exports, the speed of the return of production rates and the timing of the steady exports to China will be leading market indicators through the summer months.” He advised processors to review summer inventory requirements, including considerations for weather events, and ventured that prices would remain steady through the summer months with upward pressure.

PCW’s Barry reported domestic demand was viewed generally as decent but not overly exciting, with larger buyers in particular focused on ensuring reliable supply during hurricane season. Barry characterized the packaging market in general — ranging from food to e-commerce — as the most resilient compared to the construction sector, for example.

PP Prices Bottom Out, Rise Slightly

Polypropylene (PP) prices, which moved up in June 0.0005¢/lb in step with propylene monomer, had the potential to remain flat or rise a bit more, 1-2¢/lb, within the July-August period, according to PCW’s Barry, Spartan Polymers’ Newell, Resintel’s Greenberg and Paul Pavlov, RTi’s VP of PP and PVC. One PP supplier had nominated a 2¢/lb price increase for July, in addition to any change in monomer, but these sources doubted any potential for supplier margin price hikes going through this year.  

Spot PP prices were reported as flat to higher as suppliers continued to to run plants at lower rates, limiting availability, according to both PCW’s Barry and Resintel’s Greenberg. “Spot PP prices have been edging higher, and we expect suppliers to give an official margin-enhancing increase another shot in the third quarter. We maintain a slight upward bias to pricing unless an event develops. If another on-purpose PDH [propane dehydrogenation] outage or storm event hits the Gulf, the market could see additional gains,” Greenberg says. Meanwhile, operating rates dropped to the low 70s in percentage terms compared to the mid-80s in the early second quarter, noted RTi’s Pavlov.

“It’s possible that what we saw during those two months of decent demand was a combination of restocking, prebuying in anticipation of the hurricane season and lower prices.”

Overall demand slowed in June and into July after a very active April and May, partially due to the apparent bottoming out of resin prices. “It is possible that what we saw during those two months of decent demand was a combination of restocking, prebuying in anticipation of the hurricane season and lower prices,” Spartan Polymers’ Newell says. The outlook still has a bearish and very cautious feel among processors who expressed to Newell that second-quarter expectations appear to have fizzled out as forecasts for the second half of the year get dimmer. Market sectors that appear to be doing best include rigid packaging containers, caps and closures, and non-wovens, he says.

PCW’s Barry reported that export activity was even more limited than usual due to more competitive pricing from Middle Eastern and Asian manufacturers. He also noted that Phillips 66 was restarting its Train A line in Linden, New Jersey, which produces impact copolymer PP grades, after a scheduled maintenance outage, and that Formosa was believed to have initiated production from its new PP unit in Point Comfort, Texas.  

PS Prices Flat to Up?

Polystyrene (PS) prices in June were most likely to be flat, despite suppliers’ price increase nominations for 4-5¢/lb, according to PCW’s Barry and RTi’s Pavlov. At least one supplier had also issued a 5¢/lb price hike for July. Barry indicated that market participants were reporting some off-market deals being made by suppliers. Still, he ventured that PS prices could move up a bit if benzene supply tightened and if there is higher ethylbenzene demand for gasoline during summer driving season. Styrene monomer plants were back in operation after planned and unplanned production disruptions.

RTi’s Pavlov expected June to settle flat with minimal price increases for July, August and the rest of the year, noting that there is nothing to support price increases given lackluster demand and both spot PS resin prices and exports coming in pretty low. According to Barry, the implied styrene price (based on a 30% ethylene/70% benzene spot formula) was down 0.1¢/lb at 31.5¢/lb in June’s last week. He added that there was above average availability of spot resin material with prices largely flat.

PVC Prices Soft

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in May dropped by 1¢/lb, and suppliers were out with price increases of 3¢/lb, effective June 1, citing market conditions, according to RTi’s Pavlov. He ventured that June prices would most likely remain flat and that this trajectory could well continue into the July-August time frame. “Any increase would be the result of some unexpected production disruption,” Pavlov says.

Overall PVC demand in the first half of this year exceeded that of the same period in 2024.

Pavlov characterized demand from the construction sector as weak, with the pipe market continuing to be relatively flat. Feedstock costs are lower while domestic capacity increased by around 10% in the last 18 months. He noted that suppliers’ plant operating rates registered in the low-to-mid 80s in percentage terms, matching demand, with 16 days of inventory on average. As previously reported, overall demand in the first half of this year exceeded that of the same period in 2024, a factor largely attributed to a combination of domestic sales and export demand to Latin America for the pipe sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of the market.

PET Prices Mostly Flat

Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in June appeared to roll over with some upward push from slightly higher costs of about 1¢/lb for the terephthalic acid (PTA) feedstock, according to RTi’s Mekaru. He ventured that PET pricing would follow a similar trajectory in the July-August period — flat with potential for a 1-2¢/lb drop. Mekaru noted that the general third-quarter outlook overall was for continued soft demand, though with much less of a negative impact on the food packaging sector, owing to robust supply from domestic production and well-priced imports. This, despite the July 31 move by Alpek to shut down its Cedar Creek facility in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Acquired by the Monterrey, Mexico-based company in 2001, Alpek had an annual resin capacity of 340 million pounds for virgin PET and the capacity to produce 70 million pounds of recycled PET flake per year.