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Numbers in Perspective

Perc Pineda, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Plastics Industry Association.

Production pared back its gains based on the recently released March GBI: Plastics Processing Index, which declined from 56.2 to 52.2. However, the March reading remains above monthly figures recorded in 2024. On a three-month moving average basis, the index stood at 52.3 — marking its fifth consecutive monthly increase.

Although there have been recent announcements regarding U.S. tariffs and trade policy, further developments are anticipated. Policy shifts have occurred frequently, making it difficult to keep pace. For instance, effective April 9, the U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, following a universal 10% tariff on goods from several countries that took effect on April 5. Additionally, "reciprocal tariffs" were applied to dozens of countries starting April 9.

As of this writing, President Trump has authorized a 90-day pause on certain tariffs and reduced reciprocal tariffs for some countries, following diplomatic outreach from more than 70 nations seeking to negotiate lower rates, according to the White House press secretary. Meanwhile, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125%, effective immediately.

These shifts have heightened uncertainty for the plastics industry. While the U.S. aims to reshore manufacturing, near-term progress is unlikely. More likely is a rebalancing of tariffs through bilateral talks.

Globalization enabled offshoring of U.S. manufacturing by opening access to lower cost labor markets. To offset tariff impacts and improve competitiveness, the U.S. should also consider policy tools like regulatory reform and full expensing of capital investments —measures that can support domestic manufacturing regardless of tariff outcomes.